Edwards's Lucky Break in Iowa

John Edwards may characterize his Iowa performance in his press release as a “strong second”, but the BBC has his share of the vote as 29.7 percent to the 29.5 percent of Hillary Clinton, who finished third. 0.2 percent? That’s not a silver medal; that’s a lucky break.

It may seem a remarkable placing for a man suddenly finding himself largely ignored in favor of the Big Two, and outperformed as the candidate of change. But without a doubt, Edwards should have done far better in Iowa, and his situation now is largely uncertain. Since 2005 Edwards, unashamedly running for president again before even the keenest of politicos got excited, practically set up camp in Iowa. Figures show that he spent over 100 days in the state since 2005, and visited all of its 99 counties twice. His campaign strategy, trying to find something to capitalize on among the strong Democratic field, was to concentrate on early states and hope that the momentum a strong position might give him could launch him into larger states his organization has so far largely ignored.

Yet despite spending all night before the caucuses campaigning, Edwards failed to pull ahead. His campaign points out that it was a strong finish for someone vastly outspent by both Clinton and Obama, and this is true. But though polls show him earning a slight bump in New Hampshire, this is nothing to Obama’s astronomical rise and Clinton’s dogged firm standing in the state. If Edwards cannot gather steam in early states, he has nothing to fall back on – regardless of whether Clinton or Obama triumphs in New Hampshire, each has a well-oiled national campaign machine and, more importantly, campaign coffers full to bursting.

If Clinton finishes second in New Hampshire she still has the comfort of national polls showing she remains extremely viable for the Democratic nomination. Edwards, on the other hand, has the prospect of the Jan. 26 South Carolina primary, which is commonly seen as a chance for him to show his mettle. But polls show him far behind both Obama and Clinton, and falling – and since Edwards is not going to win New Hampshire, it will be someone else’s media coverage propelling them into the South.

Does Edwards split the Obama vote? It’s possible, but Obama hardly needs those votes at the moment. Edwards serves a far more useful purpose for the campaign by staying in the race, as pointed out by Slate’s John Dickerson – he can do Obama’s dirty work. Stooping to attacks on strong opponents, as Clinton has been forced to do, would undermine Obama’s whole campaign narrative. It’s hard to be the candidate of hope amidst belligerent mud-slinging, and luckily for Obama, he won’t have to while Edwards stays around.

Will this put Edwards on the bottom half of the Democratic ticket for a second time around? He may hope so, but it looks unlikely to happen. Even if Obama does win the nomination, which is by no means certain, his lack of concrete experience puts him at a disadvantage nationally next to whichever candidate the Republicans nominate. Obama is likely to be forced to go for the traditional tactic of choosing a VP nominee who will pull in a different pool of voters, and that is not John Edwards. All Edwards can hope for now is another lucky break.