Inevitability Not So Inevitable Anymore

The past few weeks have indicated a major momentum shift in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. Coming out of Super Tuesday on Feb. 5, the two-way contest between Sens. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) and Barack Obama (D-Ill.) appeared to be a toss up, but with a recent surge in primary and caucus victories, Obama may be experiencing a tilt in momentum in his favor.

Obama's recent wins in Nebraska, Washington, Louisiana and Maine have thoroughly tested Clinton's campaign, once considered an inevitable candidacy by the party establishment. With his win in the Maine caucuses Sunday night, Obama pulled ahead of Clinton in the number of delegates and superdelegates supporting him by a slim margin of three.

A day after Obama's wins on Saturday and Sunday, Clinton's campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle resigned, and will be replaced by former Clinton aide, Maggie Williams this week. The shake up emphasizes the trouble facing the Clinton camp in recent days as the race heads into the Potomac Primaries in Maryland, Virginia, and Washington, D.C. this Tuesday, where Obama leads in most polls. In the region, Obama has support from Virgina Gov. Tim Kaine, Mayor Adrian Fenty from Washington, D.C. and Baltimore Mayor Shelia Dixon, while Clinton has received endorsements from Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley and former Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy-Towsend.

With the race so close, some are considering the potential of a brokered convention come Aug. 25. Prominent Democrats including Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean, however, argue that an unstable convention process would not be good news for the party.

“The idea that we can afford to have a big fight at the convention and then win the race in the next eight weeks, I think, is not a good scenario,” Dean said.

Clinton, despite Obama's recent rise in both delegate count and recent national polls, believes that the nomination will be settled by the time delegates arrive in Denver for this year's convention.

“I don’t think that’s going to happen. I think we will have a nominee. I think that it will come through the regular process,” she replied when asked by Katie Couric during an interview for CBS’s 60 Minutes about the possibility of an unclear nomination process.

Clinton does not appear to be phased by Obama’s recent wins. As the candidates move into key larger state Democratic contests, Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson says his camp feels better about their chances on the March 4 primaries in Texas, Ohio and Vermont. Until then, Clinton has decided to remain steady.

In an effort to arouse enthusiasm, Clinton has already put herself up against the presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz). She believes that it is necessary for Democrats to have a candidate who will never be “knocked out of the ring” by a Republican with “legendary” status, such as McCain. She considers herself, not Obama, to be the most fitting Democrat for such a challenge.

“I think I can go toe to toe with John McCain every single day,” she said.

Obama, on the other hand, argues that he would have better odds in the ring against McCain. He stated that he, unlike Clinton, could say he did not initially support the war in Iraq, drawing the starkest contrast against McCain. Obama also has a significant following among independents and liberal Republicans, the base from which McCain also tends to draw much of his support. The Obama camp has argued that such an advantage will benefit Obama in a general election contest and allow him to compete in traditionally red states against McCain.

With the Democratic Party essentially split evenly between Clinton and Obama, the “inevitable candidate” factor is of no use in determining the outcome of the race. As the bid for the Democratic nomination heats up, one thing is certain – no one can be sure what the outcome will be.