The Kingmaker States

Ask the average American what sort of government they live under and most will probably declare emphatically, “Democracy!” A few, sensing a trick question, might smugly reply, “A constitutional republic.”

They would both be drastically mistaken.

Indeed, the United States has actually become a “South-iowa-shire-oracy.” Contrary to popular belief, all votes do not carry equal weight. Four decidedly unrepresentative states - Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada - will have by far the greatest influence on who becomes the president of the United States in January 2009.

Think back to January 2004: ah, the good old days. Howard Dean was a shoe-in for the Democratic nomination. Indeed, according to some polls, 31 percent of Democrats supported Dean, while a meager 9 percent and 5 percent supported John Kerry and John Edwards, respectively. However, Iowa inflicted a stunning upheaval on the rest of the country when John Kerry emerged victoriously; Howard Dean? He limped in third.

As a result, Dean’s support became so fragile that it was put to death by a girly “heeeya!”, and Kerry continued to build momentum towards the presidential nomination. The rest is history. Iowa, a state with four times less population than New York City, almost single-handedly selected the Democratic nominee; a change of heart in about 30 percent of Democrats living in a small Midwestern state changed the course of American history.  

The situation today is no different than it was three years ago. The early primary states, composed only of conservative-leaning, moderately sized states, have the ability to make or break presidential elections. In 2008, they will most likely narrow down the field of potential candidates for the nomination to the two who will run nationally for another year.

For instance, let’s assume there are six to eight “viable” candidates. Early primary voters pick through the entire slate of candidates, uninfluenced by the dictates of any other state. However, by the time these six to eight candidates pass through the “Kingmaker filter,” the race for the nomination will be practically over. In other words, by the time voters in the rest of the nation make a meaningful vote, they will have only a binary choice: Candidate A or B.

Indeed, every state has some sort of primary, and all voters technically posses those same six to eight options. However, for voters outside of the Kingmaker states, their votes will be essentially a formality. Why? Couldn’t a state such as California vote in a totally different direction as Iowa and drown it out with its much larger delegation? Right or wrong, candidates chart their viability as a function of their success in the first few primaries. Candidates who do not have some measure of success in those states usually drop out. Therefore, the rest of the country doesn’t have the same options that are present earlier on.

Yet, the most significant factor might be labeled the “snowball effect.” Everyone loves a winner. If the perception is that a candidacy is inevitable, the people start jumping on the band wagon. Finally, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy: people jump ship because they think the Kingmaker states make kings, but the Kingmaker states make kings because people jump ship.

Naturally, early primary states relish their role as the Kingmakers. However, this election season, Florida and Michigan have threatened the Kingmakers' influence. Both states have attempted to leapfrog the Kingmakers, triggering a vitriolic response from them. Iowa has moved up its date dramatically to Jan. 3 (16 days earlier than in 2004). New Hampshire will vote Jan. 8.

What’s the answer? The inherent logistical problem with a national primary is that only candidates with huge amounts of money can compete. This columnist recommends that the early primary states shift for each cycle, with each respective group composed of states from different regions and of different sizes. 

Now, the rest of us, not living in the Kingmaker states, have only to wait and see. Most likely, the die will have already been cast by Feb. 5, when this columnist gets a whack at it. Sure, I’ll vote my heart, but, by that time, a few thousand people in Iowa might have already broken it.

Democracy? I’d say “South-iowa-shire-oracy.”