Obama Should Call for Florida and Michigan to be Seated

In January of this year, Florida and Michigan held Democratic primaries earlier than party rules allowed them to. Because of this, all of the major Democratic candidates - including Barack Obama - pledged not to compete in these states. Hillary Clinton put her name on the ballot in both primaries, despite promising not to, and now (having "won" both), she is clamoring for the delegates she supposedly won in the two states to be seated. Barack Obama should give in to her, because he would have nothing to lose, and a whole lot to gain, by doing so.

According to the tracking Web site Real Clear Politics, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama today have 1,588 and 1,422 pledged delegates, respectively. That gives Obama a lead of 166. If the Florida and Michigan delegations were allowed to be seated, the totals would be 1,590 and 1,655 - and Obama's lead would shrink to 65.

And what difference would it make? Obama is still the winner of the primaries, whether he wins by 65 delegates or 166. What's more, out of the remaining primaries, he's favored to win, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota, and Puerto Rico (which have a combined total of 253 delegates), and he's only likely to lose in West Virginia and Kentucky (79 combined delegates). And in Indiana on Tuesdat, a state with 72 delegates, the candidates will practically split after Clinton squeezed out a victory.

Let's assume for a second that Obama allowed the Florida and Michigan delegations to be seated, and then went on to win every primary where he is favored by a ten-point margin, and that Hillary won every primary where she was favored by a ten-point margin (and that Indiana split 50-50). That would give Obama 257 more delegates from the remaining primaries, plus 36 from Indiana, while Hillary would get 79 more, plus 36. Obama's 55-delegate lead would expand to a 233-delegate lead - even bigger than he has today, without Florida and Michigan. Essentially, it would make it look like he had beaten Hillary twice - and on her own terms.

Apart from making him look gracious, and still allowing him to claim the nomination, a strong call by Obama to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates would accomplish two things. First, and most importantly, it would impress Independent voters, who aren't used to seeing a politician who isn't motivated solely by self-interest. Obama could come out and argue that even though Hillary's victories in Florida and Michigan were unfair, it's still important for the voice of the people to be heard. It's a rare opportunity to put abstract values ahead of his own self-interest. It's a move that would help re-establish his silver sheen, after the tarnishing it incurred because of the Rev. Wright and "bitter clinging" incidents. It would help restore Obama's appeal to Independents and in turn his ability to beat John McCain in the fall.

Secondly, it would make it easier for Hillary Clinton supporters to rally to Obama's candidacy, if he made some kind of a gesture towards their candidate. It's vitally important to Obama for Hillary voters to vote for him instead of defecting to McCain (or staying home), and giving in to Hillary in a major and dramatic way would help him build a relationship to those voters. Just as importantly, it would help him build a relationship to voters in Florida and Michigan, two states where he didn't campaign and both big states that could swing either way in the fall. It's not a good idea for Obama to alienate Florida and Michigan voters just to prevent Hillary from picking up a few delegates, whether or not the primaries were fair, and whether or not Hillary cheated by putting her name on the ballot in both states.

Obama's making a big mistake if he thinks the way to beat the Clintons is by adopting their scorched-earth approach to politics. He should take the higher road. It's his ability to stay above the fray that broadens his appeal - and that's why his poll numbers have been going down as he has descended to fight Hillary at her own game. The political benefits of arguing for the Florida and Michigan delegations to be seated would be enormous for Obama, and there would be no real costs. The nomination is his no matter what at this point. If he's smart, he'll take advantage of this opportunity to take the higher road, reach out to Hillary voters, and broaden his appeal in two crucial swing states all at the same time - by doing the opposite of what everybody would expect him to.